To deal or not to deal?
Holding onto a 52-40 record at the All-Star break, the Giants can feel the Diamondbacks nipping at their heels with a slim three game lead and have hinted they may add a bat to address an offense that has done just enough to compliment the second-best pitching staff in baseball.
Carlos Beltran, the 34 year old outfielder of the New York Mets, has been rumored to be a primary target of the Giants who have attractive arms to dangle in the trade market for the rebuilding Mets.
Beltran has already said he would waive his no-trade clause if he were to be dealt to the Red Sox, saying it was a "no brainer" because they were in first place.
With San Francisco in first place heading into the second half of the season, Beltran may be as eager to accept a deal to the Giants as he would for Boston. He has spent most of his career in the cellar of the standings while playing for the Royals and Mets, making it plausable he wants to play for a winner during his final years.
That is exactely what worries me about a deal for Beltran. He is 34, hasn't had a full solid season in the last two years and still will demand a hefty asking price considering he was an All-Star this season and has 58 RBIs, 14 more than San Francisco's leading RBI man (Aubrey Huff--44)
New York will ask for highly prized minor league arms like Zach Wheeler and Ryan Verdugo, and will likely even try to push for Madison Bumgardner in the deal.
Learning from trade deadline blunders:
Trading two or three top prospects for a one or two year rental can and has come back to bite the Giants in the past. In a trade for catcher A.J. Pierzynski, Brian Sabean parted with three arms that would all go on to have productive major league careers for Minnesota.
The worst part of the deal was giving up a converted starter by the name of Joe Nathan (12-4, 2.96 ERA in 2003 for SF) who always had the stuff but couldn't crack the rotation for the Giants.
Nathan would go on to be one of the best closers in the American League for the Twins for the next six seasons, saving more than 40 games three times while never posting an ERA over three from 2004-2009.
The year after the Twins received Nathan from the Giants, he saved 44 games and posted an ERA of 1.62.
Meanwhile, the Giants were cringing over signing Armando Benitez to a long-term deal after he was never able to return to the form that made him an All-Star in Florida.
Nathan wasn't the only bad part of the deal for the Giants, Minnesota also received pitchers Francisco Lirano and Boof Bonser in the trade for Pierzynski who didn't make any friends in San Francisco and departed the following year.
While Lirano has struggled with injuries on several occaisions, he has shown signs of being one of the best lefties in the game at times.
In 2006, Lirano was 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA for the Twins in more than 120 innings pitched. He also won 14 games in 2010 and threw a no-hitter earlier this year.
While Bonser never won more than eight games in the majors, Liriano and Nathan alone made the deal one that the Giants should live and learn from.
Why Pence makes sense:
Watching Hunter Pence in this year's All-Star game confirmed my feelings about him as a much better fit for the Giants, both short-term and long.
He has more outfield assists (50) than any outfielder in the game since 2008 and showed off his arm by gunning down Jose Bautista of the AL at the plate in the Midsummer Classic.
At 28, he is six years younger than Beltran and has had far better numbers in the last three years, even including this season (Beltran's best since 2008).
Simply put, Pence is entering his prime as a hitter and Beltran is simply saving face on the back nine after his last two seasons didn't measure up to anyone's expectations, especially New York's.
If you include this year, in which both Pence and Beltran were All-Stars, the last three seasons havn't even been close productivity wise if you look at the numbers:
Hunter Pence: 61 Home Runs/223 RBIs/.295 batting average (2009-2011)
Carlos Beltran: 30 Home Runs/133 RBIs/.270 batting average (2009-2011)
Pence has hit 25 home runs in both of the last two seasons and entered the break with 11 this year. His 91 RBIs last season were a career high and his 60 so far in 2011 put him on pace to surpass that.
Beltran is having a great start to his 2011 season, but hasn't had 330 or more at-bats in a season because of injuries that have hampered him the last three years.
Because of his age and reputation for missing large chunks of the season, dealing for Beltran is a dangerous deal that could endager the depth of a solid minor league system.
Even if the Giants do have to give up a number of prized prospects for Pence, he doesn't carry the baggage and risk factors that come with Beltran.
Being six years younger, Pence has a much higher ceiling and would not only add a much needed bat to the Giants lineup, but would also put another one of the leagues best arm's in the spacious confines of AT&T park to go pair with Nate Shierholtz.
The Astros need pitching and giving up a surplus for a weakness is rarely bad business.
When the Giants parted with Nathan, Liriano and Bonser for Pierzynski they were trading away some of their top arms and didn't have nearly the pitching staff they have today in San Francisco which magnified the error.
Many of the Giants current top pitching prospects have their road to the majors blocked for years to come with the assembly of stars on the big league roster: Lincecum, Cain, Bumgardner, Sanchez, Vogelsong and Zito.
The Giants are in a rare and fortuitous situation where they have an abundance of the most important ingredient in the game: good pitching.
Mix in a little timely hitting, another power bat and possibly some help defensively-- San Francisco may be getting closer to the recipe that made them a champion last year.
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